[cynthia foster]
Over at the ABA's Young Lawyer Division, UCLA's Richard Sander has an interesting analysis of the "serious and prolonged recession" plaguing the legal industry and how it may affect law students and new lawyers. He also details the reasons why no one seems to have noticed this downturn.
"The percentage of lawyers in the American
workforce peaked around the year 2000. And since 2004, according to the
latest census data, the absolute number of people listing 'lawyer' or 'attorney' as their primary occupation has been falling. Yet the
production of new lawyers by law schools exceeds—by a factor of three
or four—the number of lawyers reaching retirement age. Therefore, a
declining lawyer population means tens of thousands of attorneys are
exiting the profession in their prime."
Lack of awareness of this trend can be attributed to what Sander calls the "unusual" up-or-out structure of America's law firms. Instead of firing junior employees during times of recession, law firms lean toward releasing more senior associates who, presumably, are being let go because of their inability to draw business and make partner. This means that an influx of new talent is not being made aware of their potentially shaky job security while in law school.
Law schools are experiencing record growth, possibly informing a false sense of security among future attorneys. Students are being courted by firms while they're young and fresh, increasing dialog about the profitable legal industry among the young and hungry, but they're fired once experienced and released into a job market where there's nothing left for them to do but leave their chosen profession.
Sander insists that "prospective law students, on the threshold of spending six figures on a
legal education, need much better information about their future
prospects in the law" before making crucial new career decisions. One would think that with all the recent Internet coverage of layoffs, that the 0L population would be better informed. Just this month alone Above the Law has four posts on major firm layoffs.
There's a missing link, somewhere. Or is the law school applicant pool about to burst? Sander would seem to think it's only a matter of time.
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