Newsflash: there might be a "recession." Other than having to sift through the media’s sensationalist economic coverage on my way to news I actually care about, the recession, or economic slowdown, or extended seasonal slump, has not affected me (my financial aid checks never bounce).
However, after hearing about Davis’ Career Services issues and reading about the drop in summer hiring this year at top law firms, maybe I should be paying more attention.
Some argue that the legal profession is, in fact, in the midst of a recession and that, as law students, we should be worried. Others argue that a Wall Street recession will boost lawyers into the upper echelons of society, thrusting upon them the richly deserved social status and prestige that has proven to be so elusive.
Setting aside the panic and the delusions of grandeur for a moment, it seems to me that a meaningful downturn, whether real or imagined, has really just brought more mid-level firms into the process. NALP reported a 5% increase in the number of firms participating in Fall 2007 OCI, indicating mid market firms are participating more in on campus hiring. In addition, firms with large non-corporate, non-M&A practices may not be hit as hard by a recession.
I am not an economist, but after a little research I feel like I won’t be hit too hard, financially or socially, by any sort of recession. If this rolling readjustment continues and those financial aid checks keep coming slow and steady, I may just be able to afford a trip to New York in a few weeks.
"I feel like I won’t be hit too hard, financially or socially, by any sort of recession."
Hmmm . . . I hope you are right (for my sake!) but to be honest, I doubt it. Strongly.
It's not just the legal profession that faces a recession, it's the whole freaking economy:
http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10988516&fsrc=RSS
While your point about mid-level firms is an interesting one, I do not believe it would be wise to rest predictions of a sunny future on that foundation.
It's true that the "science" of predicting the economic future has historically been only sightly more useful than sidewalk palm readings. But it's also true that there are broad patterns and historical lessons. The fact is that things aren't looking very good right now. And anyone who tells you that the legal industry is insulated from a downturn in the economy is (1) a law school recruiter, (2) a CDO employee, or (3) just plain nuts.
Posted by: Patrick | April 05, 2008 at 10:04 PM
. . . or (4) they know something I don't.
Posted by: Patrick | April 06, 2008 at 11:22 AM
You are probably right that I trivialized the situation a little - my instinctive reaction to the analytical chaos and doomsday predictions that sometimes surround recession talk is to blow it all off, I guess. I'm especially vulnerable to this since I have a pretty tenuous grasp on the actual economics behind all of it. The Economist paints a more reliable and depressing picture.
But, I think the mid-level firms point, while certainly not enough in and of itself, is indicative of some inherent flexibility in the legal profession that may allow it to weather a recession with fewer casualties than other sectors.
For instance, firms can emphasize and build practice areas that are more recession-proof, moving attorneys into those areas, looking at international markets, etc.:
http://www.law.com/jsp/llf/PubArticleLLF.jsp?id=1204631584753
Still not a particularly rosy future, but maybe not all that bad either.
Posted by: Brian | April 06, 2008 at 04:53 PM
I agree with you there. And so does Skadden:
http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2008/04/04/is-the-bankruptcy-wave-finally-here-skaddens-new-co-head-says-yes/?mod=WSJBlog
Posted by: Patrick | April 07, 2008 at 12:02 PM