the professors' fallacy: making a case against the science of bar exam failure.

[patrick]

A UCLA School of Law researcher recently found that people who fail the bar-exam fare more poorly than even college graduates in the first five years after graduation but spring back in the later half of their careers.  By "spring back" the researcher refers to these numbers:

Broken down by age group, the median salary of law grads who never passed the bar was $32,000 before they reached the age of 30 (compared to $48,000 for lawyers and $35,600 for college grads), $48,000 from the ages of 30 to 39 (compared to $64,000 for lawyers and $42,000 for college grads), $54,000 between the ages of 40 and 49 (compared to $83,600 for lawyers and $46,250 for college grads), and $62,849 between the ages of 50 and 59 (compared to $86,400 for lawyers and $48,416 for college grads).

The article goes on to conclude that:

"Despite the resilience of the law grads who never passed the bar . . . their law school experience wasn’t worth the cost."

Wait, what?  But it gets better.  Law schools should take heed, because: 

“Legal education may be a disservice for the significant group of students that never pass a bar exam—a group whose composition can be predicted fairly accurately before they’ve even begun law school,” she says. “At the very least, law schools owe it to their prospective students to provide candid information about the risks of attending law school.”

The data is interesting, but the article frames it as what I've started calling the Professors' Fallacy; it makes a generalized observation about a whole, then it proceeds to the conclusion that concrete advice should be given in particular cases.  In this case, it suggests that "because people who share some similar traits to you fail the bar exam, you weren't cut out for law school."  

My objections to this are legion.  

First, there is a catalogue of benefits -- the very same intangible benefits professors are so often proud to laud -- that law school confers.  I mean, it's a damn fine education!  Second, consider the following list of people (hat tip to ATL): each of whom failed the bar exam at least once:

• Jerry Brown: Attorney General of California (and former California governor). Failed the California bar once before passing.
• Hillary Clinton: Brilliant, delicious (Ed. note: yes, he did just say that), and everyone should vote for her. Failed the D.C. bar exam in the 1970s, but passed the Arkansas bar — where she went on to have a successful legal career, as a partner in the Rose Law Firm.
• John F. Kennedy, Jr.: Highly attractive son of President John F. Kennedy. Failed the New York bar twice, before passing on the third try. Served as an assistant district attorney in New York from 1989 to 1993
• Emily Pataki: Highly attractive daughter of former New York Governor George Pataki. Failed the New York bar the first time, but passed the second time.
• Kathleen Sullivan: Former dean of Stanford law school, leading constitutional law scholar, and possible Supreme Court nominee (or Solicitor General pick) in a Democratic administration. Failed the California bar exam when she took it in July 2005.
• Pete Wilson: Former California governor. Failed the California bar exam three times, before passing on his fourth try.

Other notables include Former New York City Mayor Ed Koch, Edith S. Sampson (the first African American delegate to the United Nations and first black woman elected judge in the United States), Marion G. "Pat'' Robertson  (host of "The 700 Club," and president and chief executive officer of the mega-powerful Christian Broadcasting Network), and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley.

What if those people had been told prior to law school that they weren't cut out out for it, that their career forecast looked dismal, and that they were better off stopping with a bachelor's degree?  Sure, on one hand the researcher's advice could have helped stifle Pat Robertson.  But on the other hand, it would also have held back JFK, which would likely have created a nuclear holocaust, instead.

Comments

[SFJD]

What it sounds like they're saying is there are a number of fairly accurate predictors for bar passage, such as UGPA and LSAT, and that those whose numbers indicate a low chance of them ever passing the bar should be forewarned of this possibility before attending law school. Which rarely happens.

I would bet all the people in that list went to a high ranked or top 10 law school, i.e., even though they failed they statistically would have had a good chance at passing anyway.

Keep in mind I'm not one of those "you went to a TTT" jackasses. I went to a fourth tier school. But, I think it's true that there are a lot of folks being sold this false dream of becoming a rich lawyer, without being advised of the reality of the situation. I have no qualms giving everyone a shot, and there are some very fine lawyers out there who statistically didn't have a chance, but people should be making an informed decision regardless.

[09JD]

I'll be the first to herald the "intangible benefits" of law school. But it is naive to think that recent college graduates are putting down $100,000 and 3 years of their lives for those intangibles. They see the promise of a large salary and misjudge their ability to repay their debt when the predictable economic downturn comes. There is nothing wrong in correcting these misperception for those most likely to become victims of law-school goggles.

Here's a little quiz. I'm willing to bet that prospective law students (at any school) will not have a realistic idea about their actuarial odds of accomplishing these goals.

1. Graduating law school
2. Graduating near the top of their class, i.e. law review
3. Passing the bar in California/NY (and maybe even in other states)
4. Getting a paying job at all
5. Getting a job at a big law firm, i.e. 160k
6. Having over $150,000 in debt upon graduation
7. Working at a big law firm for over 3 years
8. Paying off their debt in 10 years

In most professions, misleading a majority of potential apprentices about their chances of making it in the field could be called fraud. At many law schools, it is standard practice. I'm not saying that law schools are lying, but their willful silence with full knowledge about actual odds--reinforced annually by collected statistics--is irresponsible at best, especially in this economy.

Specifically on the bar exam, look at the stats the Cal Bar board provides every year. The short story is that students from unaccredited schools and repeat takers (and especially repeat takers from unaccredited schools) do not pass very often. This, in addition to the fact that some lower-ranked schools teach almost-exclusively for the bar exam (limiting the "intangibles" which law school should teach) and cut a large portion of their first year class (or take them off scholarship) depending on their 1st year grades, means that students should look long and hard before deciding to attend.

If you want to go to law school, more power to you. All I suggest is that you go with full information. Anything that will increase knowledge is a good thing, even at the cost of discomfort.

[Mark]

I failed the May 2008 NY Bar (and haven't retaken it). It hasn't ruined my life, but the last year hasn't been easy, either. It took me about a year to readjust. I decided to not retake the bar right away. And now I have a law-related job that pays $75k, which about as much as most grads from my law school (tier 2) make when they're at my stage.

So, was law school worth it? Probably.

Why? First, I was an English major in college (albeit at a top 25 school). So my income would otherwise have been pretty crummy (at 75k, it's now probably double what it otherwise would have been). Second, I didn't graduate with as much debt from law school as many other students. And third, I actually liked law school. It was fascinating and it probably made me a smarter person (though apparently not bright enough to pass the bar; I admit this much).

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Failure of any kind of exam doesn't necessarily equate to your failure as a human being. You can always try again. Just maintain the right mindset and keep persevering.